The first response to Russia’s campaign of political/unconventional warfare against the West is to quibble about language. Fashionable jargon includes “sub-threshold,” “gray-zone,” and “hybrid” war, or warfare. I prefer the old KGB term “active measures.” Everyone has an opinion.
But these arguments are a substitute for action. The Kremlin is winning, creating a “new normal” in which state terrorism becomes tolerable. It attacks our decision-making and sows divisions.
The urgent task is rebuilding defense and deterrence. The first of these is difficult. It involves hardening infrastructure, increasing spare capacity, building public awareness, and creating speedy new means of cooperation within and between countries. In all of Europe, only Finland has a well-established system of comprehensive defense. That makes the country a daunting target: why rob Fort Knox when you can find easier places? But Finland’s model is not easily or quickly replicated.
That puts a big weight on deterrence. We need to create the “ouch” factor in Russian and Chinese minds. Don’t do that. It will hurt. Our usual responses are diplomatic expulsions and economic sanctions. Neither works. They may do some damage to Russia, slowing down its economy or its spy networks. But clearly, they have not stopped the onslaught against our infrastructure, institutions, and individuals. Or against Ukraine, for that matter.
We need to think laterally. We are not going to respond in kind – for example by putting firebombs in parcels to bring down Russian cargo planes. We will not protect our system against Putinism by Putinizing it.
Nor should we expect that deterrence is just the job of the country being attacked. Far more effective is when several — ideally many — countries respond, in ways that the aggressor and its friends are not expecting.
One weak point may be China. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been helping Russia’s war on Ukraine, and its sabotage of cables and pipelines under the Baltic Sea. It has paid little price for this so far. But suppose that the Nordic and Baltic countries announced they had all decided to send one or two extra officials to their missions in Taipei.
That would quickly attract attention in Beijing. The CCP devotes ridiculous efforts to scrubbing Taiwan’s name from public view. Many websites bow to this pressure, calling it instead “Chinese Taipei” or “Taiwan, Province of China”.
The Chinese leadership has signaled, usefully, that it minds about this. Good, let’s give them something more to mind about. Most Western countries already have quasi-diplomatic offices in the Taiwanese capital. Making these a bit bigger and more high-profile does not mean dumping the “One China” policy, which precludes formal diplomatic recognition of Taiwan. But it would send a clear message to Beijing. Perhaps next time the Russians ask their Chinese friends to send a ship through the Baltic sea with its anchor dragging over cables and pipelines, they will find a reason not to do so.
Collective action lowers the risk. If one country boosts its ties with Taiwan, the CCP will retaliate (as Lithuania has found to its cost). But if, say, eight countries all do the same thing, it will be far harder. They could take the same approach by celebrating the 90th birthday of the Dalai Lama (on July 6th next year). Any foreign contact with the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader drives the bullies of Beijing into a frenzy.
Thinking outside the box is good. But sometimes action in the box is even better. The aim of Russia’s campaign of mayhem is to distract and deter Western countries from helping Ukraine. So the best response is to double down on that help.
Edward Lucas is a Non-resident Senior Fellow and Senior Advisor at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
From the Ashes: Cultural Identity and National Security in the Age of Conflict
Date: November 19, 2024
Time: 10:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. CT
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