While Europe dozes, Russia is waging war. Not just in Ukraine, but in the comfortable countries to its west. These “gray zone” attacks target infrastructure and computer databases, military facilities and commercial premises, fugitives, and critics.
The immediate effects are cost and disruption. Arteries for data and energy flows—cables and pipelines—are cut. Humdrum features of daily life such as air freight for parcels become complicated: suppose another hired thug tries to post a bomb. Public services stop working properly because ransomware has scrambled databases. Sensitive facilities need more security guards: the price is paid by the rest of us. People stop feeling safe. Christo Grozev of Bellingcat had to leave his home city of Vienna because the Austrian authorities could not protect him from Russian assassins. For others on the Kremlin hitlist, travel around Europe is clouded by the threat of extradition to Russia.
But these casualties are incidental. The real aim is to hit our decision-making. Some of us will simply accept a “new normal,” with greater cost, risk, and inconvenience. Yet the more we tolerate Russian terrorism the more we ensure that worse outrages ensue. Spreading fear uncertainty and doubt helps the Kremlin too. As the public gets scared and cross, decision-makers act accordingly. For example, they hold back from helping Ukraine or from confronting Russia.
That stokes disunity. Some countries are braver than others. Or they perceive more clearly that these attacks are building up to threaten the whole system that keeps us safe and free. Their leaders are ready to respond decisively. Other countries are cowardly or muddled. They fear confrontation and escalation. We see this division already in our reaction to Russia’s drones, missiles, and other airspace intrusions. Frontline states would like to shoot them down—over Russian territory if necessary—and ask questions later. But no sooner have the intruders appeared on the radar screens than the phone rings from Washington DC: don’t do anything, comes the firm message.
These are attacks on NATO members, for which NATO has no answer. The alliance is configured for a war we’re not going to fight, or at least not yet. It is not configured for the war we are fighting right now. Worse, Russia knows this. We don’t. So it can escalate with impunity and reap a rich harvest.
My big worry is this. Imagine that Russia launches a much bigger sub-threshold attack on a single NATO ally, perhaps with mercenaries or irregular soldiers, crossing the border in the Baltic states or Poland or Finland. Imagine electronic warfare that grounds planes and cripples computer networks. Imagine drones and bombs hitting critical infrastructure. Imagine the assassination of political and business leaders. Imagine perhaps shadowy “liberation fronts” demanding political change. A country suffering such a combination of attacks would rightly see that as an existential threat, requiring an armed response, not just on its own territory, but targeting the sources of the torment inside Russia.
And what will Russia do? It will rattle its nuclear saber. It will say that any attack from NATO countries on its territory will meet a swift and merciless response.
What happens then? It is hard to imagine Germany or the United States allowing Lithuania to strike a Russian special forces base in Kaliningrad, or an airfield in Belarus, or letting Finland and Estonia hit drone factories near St Petersburg. It is much easier to imagine urgent demands for talks, for a diplomatic solution, for sanctions. The words “gravely concerned” would feature a lot.
And NATO would be over, marking a huge victory for Putin.
We are closer to this than we think.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
From the Ashes: Cultural Identity and National Security in the Age of Conflict
Date: November 19, 2024
Time: 10:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. CT
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