Regardless of who wins the US presidential election on November 5th, Pax Americana’s obituaries are now being drafted. They should be long ones. The Atlantic alliance was one of the most distinctive and seemingly durable features of post-war Europe. It brought security and freedom to tens of millions of people for decades, first by preventing Communism’s spread, then by winning the Cold War, and thereafter doubling NATO membership from 16 in 1989 to 32 now.
True, the American-led security order was never healthy and lived riskily. The European end was cranky and often unreliable. Endemic underspending on defense strained American patience over many decades; so too did idiosyncratic decision-making, especially in France. Ungrateful or paranoid “peace” campaigners depicted the US nuclear presence in Europe as a menace, not a safeguard. Many Europeans were outraged by failed American wars in Indo-China in the 1960s and 1970s, by the “Global War on Terror” after 2001, and shunned the looming hard confrontation with China.
If the alliance was troubled, so too was the peace it brought. It failed to stop the Kremlin’s murderous cold-war rampages in the captive nations of Europe, and initially let Slobodan Milosević run riot in ex-Yugoslavia. “Europe whole, free and at peace” was an admirable motto for the post-1991 era. But it did not stretch far or firmly enough: Ukrainians are paying the price for that right now.
A successful attack by Vladimir Putin on a NATO country may deal the decisive final blow, but the deadly rot started earlier. For decades US administrations urged fortitude on Europe. Now the Biden administration is so scared of escalation that it refuses to allow beleaguered Ukraine to use donated deep-strike weapons inside Russian territory. As a result, Ukraine’s front is crumbling under the daily onslaught of guide bombs and other munitions launched from airfields that defenders are not allowed to target. The US also prevents its NATO allies from responding promptly and decisively to Russian “sub-threshold” attacks: intrusions and other dirty tricks.
Accelerating protectionism adds another dose of trust-killing poison: a decade ago, the US and Europe (and Pacific allies, too) could have built a giant common economic governance zone with not just free trade but common rule-setting. Instead, these countries chose selfish, short-sighted grandstanding. They are all poorer and weaker as a result.
As US influence ebbs on the continent, European countries are falling like dominos. Russia’s web of dirty tricks, economic ties, propaganda, and spycraft has snared Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria already, with Georgia and Bulgaria next – and more looming.
Yet seen from Washington, European allies are mostly barely worthy of the name. Militarily, they are too small or backward to operate alongside high-tech American forces. The more advanced ones, such as Britain, lack the stockpiles to join any operation for long. Nor do they have much to offer on other fronts: diplomatic, economic, or cultural. Why pick up the tab?
These flaws did not need to be fatal. Europe could easily be a more effective and capable ally and the US a more resolute and far-sighted one. But both sides enjoyed carping on about the alliance more than they cared to invest money and political capital in preserving it. When it is gone, they will miss it. European governments, having refused to pay the relatively modest costs of sustaining Ukraine and maintaining adequate defenses within NATO, will now face the colossal bill for running their own security. Americans, facing intensifying geopolitical competition, may miss their old allies—especially if some of them flip into the Chinese camp.
No flowers, please. Instead, donations to any European military budget will be gratefully appreciated.
Edward Lucas is a Non-resident Senior Fellow and Senior Advisor at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
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From the Ashes: Cultural Identity and National Security in the Age of Conflict
Date: November 19, 2024
Time: 10:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. CT
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