Appease Russia or confront it, spies and saboteurs will target you regardless. Germans worry that sending Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine would lead to a dangerous confrontation. But as far as the Kremlin is concerned, their country is already a target.
Earlier this summer, CNN broke the story of a plan to assassinate the chief executive of the German arms giant Rheinmetall, along with other weapons industry executives. That story has gone oddly quiet. But Russian activity has continued. German prosecutors say they are investigating “the suspicion of espionage activity for sabotage purposes” following repeated drone flights over critical energy infrastructure in Schleswig-Holstein.
This story has several depressing features. The drones have been buzzing around for weeks, at least. They are thought to be launched from merchant vessels in the North Sea. The German police drones tried to follow the intruders but could not match their speeds of 90 kph (55 mph). This is not 1945, when Allied air forces flew freely over the shattered remains of the Third Reich. Germany is one of the richest countries in the world. It should do a better job of defending its airspace.
Nor, it seems, can it guarantee the security of its military bases. Security staff found holes cut in the fences of water facilities supplying a barracks that serves the military part of Cologne/Bonn airport in North Rhine-Westphalia. Thousands of soldiers and civilians were told to drink only bottled water after initial reports (later discounted) of abnormalities. At Geilenkirchen in north-west Germany, which hosts NATO’s AWACS aerial reconnaissance fleet, commanders sent all non-essential personnel home last week amid a security alert.
Then there’s the political system. German security officials have been watching with concern Russian media and other support for far-left and far-right politicians. The new BSW party named after (and founded by) Sahra Wagenknecht, a hard-left East German, is likely to do well in regional elections on September 1st. Polls show the BSW winning 13 percent in Saxony and 18 percent in Thuringia. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s social democrats are polling a dismal 6-7% in both states. Wagenknecht, who joined the communist party in 1989, just as the Soviet puppet state was collapsing, says she will not form coalitions with any party that supports the return of US nuclear missiles to Germany.
Germany may be a soft spot in Europe, but Russian mischief is rampant in other countries too. Finland, which has perhaps the most resilient defenses of any NATO country, has experienced at least eleven attempted break-ins this summer at water towers and treatment works. No damage has been recorded, and no culprits have been identified, leaving the question open to whether this was clumsy reconnaissance or an attempt to rattle nerves. More recently, the “Mikhail Kazansky,” a research vessel of the Russian Baltic Fleet violated Finnish territorial waters amid significant interference with GPS signals.
Malefactors have been busy in hawkish Norway too. News has emerged of the sabotage in April of a communications cable at the Evenes air base. This is home to Poseidon-8 surveillance aircraft and F-35 fighter jets. On the Svalbard archipelago, where Russia has inherited Soviet coal-mining rights guaranteed by international treaty, mining company staff hoisted large Soviet flags (claiming to be reviving a long-standing tradition). Earlier, they illegally erected a large Orthodox cross in a nature reserve. Svalbard’s complicated status in international law makes it a prime target for Russia’s salami-slicing tactics. Small, symbolic intrusions may seem too trivial to merit a full-scale response, but if left unchallenged, they create dangerous precedents—and destroy deterrence.
Europe does not know how to respond to this. And the Kremlin knows it.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
The post Hot Summer: Russia and Europe appeared first on CEPA.